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Rain here, snow there

So we get less than a tenth of an inch of rain out of this "storm," but a slice of the western Allegany County may get up to a foot of snow ? How is that fair? New England is finally getting some wintry weather, too.No matter. The heavy snow warnings are up in the mountains to our west. Really! Look, I won't even make you click to see it:"SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHERTERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND THE WESTERN RIDGES OFHIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILLINCREASE AND PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS ASECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONSOF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THEWARNING AREA...WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAVOREDLOCATIONS."Here's a webcam view from WISP, taken this morning. And here's our forecast - seasonable temperatures and no precipitation until Thursday. The weekend looks cold, though, with highs stuck in the 20s. Then all we'll need is a coastal storm, and we could get actual winter weather.

Snow showers, no sweat

Low pressure over eastern Canada is dragging plenty of cold air into our region today from the west. And a weak disturbance embedded in that cold air could trigger some snow showers this afternoon. In their morning discussion today, forecasters call it "not enough for accumulations, but enough to be noticed if it happens."So if snow does appear in your office windows today, there's no need to panic and flee into the flakes, headed for the grocery store. Just relax and enjoy the scenery.UPDATE: 3 P.M. - Some of the showers we saw this afternoon actually did leave a measurable accumulation. Click here. And here's what it looks like on radar.It will all be over tonight as skies clear and the stars come out. Tomorrow should be sunny and bright, too, with seasonable highs in the 40s. They're calling for a coastal low to develop on Thursday, bringing us another shot at some significant precipitation by the afternoon. The forecast high for Thursday at BWI is 40 degrees, so they're talking about "mostly rain" east of the mountains, and "mostly snow" to the west. Thursday night into Friday could bring some changeover to a mix of rain and snow here. But forecasters caution that, with this kind of coastal storm, they won't get a handle on the rain/snow line until 12 to 24 hours ahead of its arrival.Whatever we get, there may be a good deal of it. The forecast mentions a potential for up to a half-inch of rain Thursday night. With enough cold air in place, and just the right storm track, who knows? Friday could usher in the coldest weather of the season so far. The forecast calls for highs only in the 30s for the long MLK weekend. Sunday night's low could sink to 13 degrees.

First Messenger image from Mercury flyby

Scientists and engineers at Johns Hopkins' Applied Physics lab have released the first closeup image of Mercury from Monday's flyby by the Messenger spacecraft. The photo includes some never-before-seen terrain that looks just like, well, the rest of Mercury, first (and last) photographed by the Mariner 10 spacecraft in 1974-1975. It also looks a lot like our moon.That's okay. There's plenty more to come, and you can be sure there will be some surprises. Here's the release from APL. And here's an approach "movie" assembled from stills shot as Messenger neared Mercury on Sunday and Monday.More to come. Here's Messenger's home page.

Let's just say 2007 was very warm

When two federal scientific behemoths disagree, what's a mere citizen to conclude? Or does it even matter? Yesterday, both NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their data on global average temperatures for 2007. The bottom line? It was very warm, one of the warmest years on record, and continued a trend that has persisted since the beginning of the last century.But how exactly did 2007 rank? Well, there the two agencies part company.Climatologists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in New York, concluded that 2007 tied with 1998 as the planet's "second-warmest year in a century." The record-holder remains 2005. What's more, they said, "Barring a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next few years, at the time of the next El Nino, because of the background warming trend attributable to continuing increases of greenhouse gases."In other words, unless a volcanic blast shades the planet in dust, the warming trend will continue, and will likely peak when the periodic warming of the Pacific, known as El Nino, shifts weather patterns in ways that tend to make things warmer all over.The map shows where 2007 average temperatures were the warmest relative to the 1951-1980 mean. Cooler colors show where they were cooler than the long-term mean.NASA GISS also noted that the eight warmest years of the last century have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest have all occurred since 1990. They also note that this especially hot year globally came during a time of low solar irradiance and of La Nina cooling in the Pacific. The steepest warming curve was in the Arctic, which observed record-low sea ice during the summer.Okay. So what about NOAA?NOAA's release yesterday reported that global land and ocean surface temperatures in 2007 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record. Taken separately, the average global land surface temperature was actually the warmest on record, while global ocean tempertaure was the 9th warmest since records began in 1880.The agency said seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, while the rate of warming in the last 30 years has been three times the rate during the last century.Obviously, we are comparing different data sets here, or measuring the 2007 data against different spans of historic records. NASA seems to be using 1900 as a starting point, while NOAA goes back to 1880.But I'm not sure it really matters. They may see the details differently, but the big picture seems clear. Things have been warming up since at least 1900, and that's not slowing down.BTW, for the lower 48 states, NOAA found 2007 was the tenth warmest on record, averaging 1.4 degrees above the 20th Century mean of 52.8 degrees F.

Snow in the morning

A new storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and the relatively cold air in place in our region, should combine to bring us a bit of snow in the morning, forecasters say. But there's not a lot of hope - for those in need of a snow day - for any significant accumulations.The storm is spinning up in the northern Gulf today, and is expected to move across the Florida panhandle into the Atlantic, just off the Carolina coast, by tomorrow afternoon. That will supply the precipitation.The cold air is already in place, with a forecast low tonight in the mid-20s. That will set the stage for snowfall in the morning hours, at least until temperatures start to warm up during the day. NWS forecasters at Sterling are saying it will be all snow until around 10 a.m., and mix with rain until about noon. By then enough warm air will have pushed into the region, and worked its way down to the surface, to change it all to rain.The farther west you are - west of I-95 - the later the changeover will occur, they say. In any case, they're saying "little or no snow accumulation expected." But this is the sort of winter scenario that is notoriously hard to predict with confidence in these parts. So we could wake to slippery roads, or just wet.The highest likelihood for prolonged wintry precip is in western Virginia.

Bawlmer snow forecast deepens

After preaching about "an inch," and changeover to mixed precip, and then rain, and no accumulation, the National Weather Service has deepened its forecast for Thursday. Now, the winter weather advisory posted west of the I-95 corridor is talking about 2 to 4 inches of snow during the day Thursday, and an inch or two east of I-95 with a late changeover to freezing rain.Here's the morning advisory.Farther west, in Carroll and Frederick and points west, they're looking for 4 to 8 inches in an all-day snowfall. Really. They've posted a winter storm warning out there.AM UPDATE: Overnight, the NWS has scaled back its accumulation estimates by an inch or two. It's now 1-2 in the advisory area, and 3-6 in the warning area. Here's the map.School systems may have a hard time with this one, since the snow isn't expected to start in Baltimore until after sunrise. Do we close schools with no snow in the air? Or do we bring everybody to school and send them home early after it starts to accumulate?The precipitation is on its way. Here's the radar loop. And here's AccuWeather.com's take on it all. And Madman Margusity's. This will be messy.

Snow starts downtown; more due Saturday

The snow has begun to fall at Calvert & Centre streets. But the temperature outside the newsroom is 36 degrees, so it's hard to imagine any of this will stick on the streets. Forecasters continue to call for an inch or two in the I-95 corridor, and a couple more than that to our west.Maybe they're onto something. I notice the barometer has been falling since the snow began. So is the temperature, which happens when it precipitates. Some Virginia locations are already reporting several inches on the ground. To check for school closings, or subscribe to school closing alerts, click here.Here's the Winter Weather Advisory for east of I-95. And this is the Winter Storm Warning posted for Carroll County and west. Below is the snow prediction map from AccuWeather.com Clearly most of the snowfall will be well to our west and northeast, by their estimates.The NWS says to expect moderate to heavy snow rates as the storm gets started. Here's the radar loop. The changeover to a rain/snow mix will start to our southwest and work its way north and east. As the storm moves up the coast we will fall into a more easterly flow of air off the ocean. The NWS is saying that will mean warmer air and a change to freezing rain or rain this afternoon, depending on how long it takes to shake the colder temperatures near the surface. But it looks to me like the air near the surface is already well above freezing.Even if we get off easy with this one, as it appears we may, the forecasters have more in store. They're expecting a second coastal low to move our way on Saturday, with precipitation likely to increase as the day wears on. Like today's weather, that storm is expected to start as snow, then mix and change to rain in the eastern sections of the region during the afternoon.The really cold air arrives as the Saturday storm departs with a high Sunday only in the upper 20s.Our next storm chances are forecast for the middle of next week.

So, how bad is it?

Here I am, stuck inside on this beautiful snowy January day, writing about the weather outside. But I'm inside, chained to a computer, and I can only see a stretch of Calvert Street, the JFX and Guilford Avenue. They're starting to look slushy and slippery. But how would I know?If you've been out in it, drop me a comment here and let us all know what the driving and walking conditions are like. How bad is it really? Be sure to say where you are. As Stephen L. Miles used to say, 'Lets talk about it.'You can also upload your digital photos to our readers' photo page. Do it now! Give us shut-ins a vicarious day in the snow.

Slop continues tonight, N & W of cities

National Weather Service forecasters say the precipitation will continue into the evening, though it will be lighter than we saw earlier today. But warmer air is working it's way into the region, and that means we'll see more rain south and east of the cities, but sleet and freezing rain north and west.Here, I'll just let the folks in Sterling sort it out:"AS FOR P-TYPE (PRECIPITATION TYPE), WARMER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION ALOFT ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND EVEN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE CITIES SOUTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR OFF THE OCEAN FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING CAUSING THE MAIN P-TYPE TO BE RAIN/DRIZZLE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SUBURBS AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT THIS MEANS THE MAIN P-TYPE WILL BE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WE WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR NOW"Bottom line, stay home with a good book tonight.So far Glen Burnie, of all places, seems to hold the brass ring for the most snow in the Baltimore area today, at least according to the latest storm report from Sterling.And the cleanup has begun. Our ace tech person in the newsroom has just put on his coat and he's headed up to the roof to sweep off the satellite dish antennas. The snow cut off reception of our Associated Press news and features feeds, and our New York Times wire feed. And here's a hoot. I received this photo this afternoon from Steve Zubrick, the NWS science and operations officer out at Sterling. Here's what he had to say about it:"Frank,Check this out...this is >one< "snowflake" that landed on my shirt around 3 PM this afternoon here at the weather office that measured nearly 1.75" across. Wow! This is an aggragate of snow flakes. When the whole sky is full of these, it's impressive!Winds were very light at the time. These mega-flakes fell almost vertically. If winds were gusty, these mega-flakes would never make it to the surface.Picture credit: NWS WFO forecaster Steve Rogowski (and that's my shirt!).Steve Z."

Snow Saturday not a worry

Yes, there is more snow in the forecast, nevermind the bright sunshine and all the melting going on out there today. The National Weather Service folks in Sterling are making it a 50 percent chance of snow as yet another storm gears up for a run along the coast.Our results will depend on the storm's track, but even if it tracks farther offshore than expected, we will still see some precipitation, they say. Temperatures will be cold enough to support snow. But "amounts for the most part will be light," the NWS says. "The exception could be lower Southern Maryland." Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm, which it tags as having "little impact."But stay tuned. Snow forecasts can change.The real weather news this weekend won't be snow, but cold. As the Saturday storm departs, an arctic cold front will move across the region, dropping temperatures into the teens Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will be blustery all weekend, adding serious wind chill issues to the low temperatures. Behind the front, the air will be clear, so Sunday will be sunny. But temperatures will stay below freezing all day with a forecast high of only 28 degrees. Monday morning will be the coldest, with a low of 13 degrees forecast for BWI.After that, the warmup will be slow, creeping toward the freezing mark on Monday and the upper 30s by Tuesday as the arctic high moves off the coast to our east. Normal highs at this time of year are in the low 40s.Forecasters say we can expect another bout of precipitation at mid-week, but they're calling for rain, not snow.